CAD data is too stunning... it's full of red marks. I feel like hearing Poloz's cry just now. Ok, enough with the joke and let's get started..
I entered long position in USD/CAD due to bad data released. I thought that i will enter later after some retracement since i thought not all data will go with the same reaction after all but this is too stunning.
Madness, no increase in inflation, even CPI got lower with slowing retail sales. I quess nothing should be arguable anymore for now. You're still confused? Just sell CAD... it's not even a question anymore.
Seems like there is some profit taking along the USD Cross pairs and i'm closing at a little higher and entered a new Gold position or XAU/USD. Unfortunately USD/JPY pair shoots up and reach stop loss. I am not a GOD and i will not be able to forecast an earthquake in Japan to happen as well. Click here to check the news. Short term volatility and profit taking is very normal and that is why i place SL and TP for short term positions. So.. let's get started!
Gold has only reached 1343 level unfortunately and goes down again from there. If you think long from current position is risky then you're probably right. But as a trader i'm just using the chance and entered a position due to profit taking. For now, the chance for a new high to be reached still quite high and you can check the trading position form here. 1343 will be the next resistance to top and shall it break, it will goes up to 1350 later. While 1320 might be the next support, 1300 seems to be more critical.
Rejoice Gold bulls, i am the same with you! If you take a look at the revised data downwards from FOMC and see the revised path of hike, it seems that FED admits they are wrong. And then if you think from looking at the current data, they can't even raise rate from such data and what if the data released next few months got uglier? Well, even though market is pricing in around 60% rate hike chance in December 2016, personally i am still doubting it to happen not to mention the next projection might be revised even to the downside once more again.
But let's discuss the trading opportunity for later...
the next tradeable data will be for USD/CAD. I will not recommend any trader to follow the news after the initial reaction from the data but let's discuss at here first. If the highlighted data increase more than expectation, it will be bullish for CAD. The hard thing is, not all data might be good at the released news and this makes the situation complex. In order to learn the direction, try to watch Core retail sales data and Core CPI first since they are more important to bring an effect. And how is CPI in here? I believe this is actually the most important thing in here.
How to trade this event? Ok... after the sudden data release, USD/CAD pair might jump to either way looking at the data. So the trick is not to follow the crowd but you need to wait for a reversal first! So as the example after the initial news USD/CAD pair jumps to 1.31 from 1.30 then after some reversal to 1.305 or 1.30 then you can start making entry depend on the direction of the jump. Surely you need to check whether the jump is following the data or not first. If they are not following the data, then that is simply traders expectation that makes the pair rallies but it is a failure. Make sure to use 2-3 entries depending in your own calculation in here as well such as first entry after 50% retracement after the initial jump and second entry after full retracement after the initial jump. Last word from me, if the jump happen but the data didn't show any big change from expectation or forecast then don't trade.
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